Dubai’s residential real estate market demonstrated robust activity in the first half of 2026, registering a remarkable AED 227.1 billion across 82,979 transactions. This performance is noteworthy given the geopolitical tensions affecting the region, especially during the second quarter.

Transaction Breakdown in 2026

In the first quarter of 2026 alone, the market recorded AED 137.1 billion in transactions from 45,185 deals, showing consistent demand without signs of disruption. Real estate prices maintained an average range of AED 1,900 to AED 2,000 per square foot during this period. However, the second quarter presented a contrasting narrative, with total transactions dropping to AED 89.98 billion across 37,794 deals. Prices in this period saw a slight decline, fluctuating between AED 1,800 and AED 2,000 per square foot. The market faced external pressures such as Iranian strikes impacting UAE infrastructure, raising questions about the resilience of Dubai’s real estate landscape amid uncertainties.

Comparative Metrics: 2025 vs. 2026

A comparison with the previous year reveals significant shifts in transaction metrics. In the first quarter of 2025, the market saw 43,492 transactions valued at AED 115.1 billion. Contrastingly, Q1 2026 not only exceeded the number of transactions but also marked a substantial increase in total transaction value by 19%. The average price per square foot rose from AED 1,500–1,600 to AED 1,900–2,000, illustrating an upward trend in property valuations. The off-plan property segment maintained a strong presence, accounting for 73.4% of transactions compared to 68% in Q1 2025. The delivery of ready units, however, saw a stark decline, indicating a tightening supply.

Understanding Supply Dynamics

A prevalent concern in the market has been the narrative of oversupply, fueled by estimates suggesting nearly 90,000 units were completed in 2025. However, verified records indicate only 44,457 units were delivered, a figure substantially lower than anticipated. Moreover, the market witnessed considerable population growth, adding 173,263 residents by October 2025. This demographic surge has put further pressure on housing availability, suggesting that the focus should shift from quantity to the quality of supply in alignment with market demand.

Looking ahead, forecasts for 2026 indicate approximately 44,946 new completions, based on projects that have surpassed the 50% construction threshold. This outlook emphasizes a continued emphasis on consistent delivery rather than an overwhelming influx of new units.

Market Value Insights: Beyond the Transactions

In examining Dubai’s total residential market, a striking figure emerges: it stands at approximately AED 1.9 trillion. Of this, AED 936 billion, or 56%, comprises completed and occupied units. Interestingly, only 20% of this ready-to-occupy stock is under mortgage, meaning a significant portion of residential value remains untapped. This situation presents a unique opportunity for property owners, as many could potentially unlock substantial equity from their assets.

Prosper, an analytical platform, aids property owners in navigating their financial options. By facilitating refinancing and equity release, it allows owners to leverage their existing holdings to generate capital for further investments, thus optimizing their real estate portfolios.

In conclusion, while Dubai’s real estate market faces its share of challenges, the overall resilience in transaction value, coupled with a growing population and emerging refinancing opportunities, suggests a positive and adaptive outlook for the future.