In May 2024, Fitch Ratings released a forecast suggesting a significant downturn in Dubai’s real estate market, predicting potential price drops of as much as 15% from 2025 into 2026 due to expected increases in supply. However, contrary to this gloomy prediction, the market has shown remarkable resilience and growth, as evidenced by recent data from the Dubai Land Department (DLD).

Strong Growth in Real Estate Transactions

As we look back a year later, Dubai’s real estate sector has not only withstood the anticipated slump but has also experienced strong growth in transactions across all major categories. According to figures from the DLD, off-plan sales surged approximately 26% year-on-year, while total resale transactions climbed from 61,936 in 2024 to 64,277 in 2025. Overall, the city recorded an impressive 205,940 transactions in 2025, marking an 18% increase from the previous year. These statistics clearly indicate that the market remains buoyant, defying forecasts of decline.

The average pricing trends further substantiate this positive trajectory. The DLD reported an increase of around 7% in property prices for 2025. Additionally, internal data from Allsopp & Allsopp revealed a striking increase of nearly 33% in average sales prices, reflecting a rising demand for higher-value properties. This escalating trend signals heightened confidence among buyers and promises sustained growth in the years to come.

Expert Insights on Market Dynamics

Lewis Allsopp, CEO of Allsopp & Allsopp, expressed optimism regarding Dubai’s property market, stating that all key indicators—transaction volumes, pricing, and average prices—point to growth. “The narrative of a slowdown simply doesn’t align with the data,” he emphasized, asserting that 2025 has been Dubai’s most robust year yet, with favorable indicators pointing towards an even stronger performance in 2026.

This discourse on market prospects was spotlighted during a recent real estate conference. On a panel discussion with the CEO of a leading short-term rental service, who reiterated a bearish outlook, Allsopp confidently defended his view on the flourishing Dubai market. His steadfast position is now validated by the compelling data reflecting an upward trajectory for the real estate sector.

Long-term Fundamentals Driving Market Strength

Allsopp noted that the sustained population growth, an influx of high-net-worth individuals, and increasing demand from established families are all reinforcing the market’s resilience. “These are key fundamentals that uphold long-term market strength versus transient speculation,” he explained.

Moreover, Allsopp & Allsopp reported a remarkable 42% increase in total transaction value in 2025 compared to the prior year, consistently setting and surpassing internal performance benchmarks throughout the year. As global interest in Dubai continues to grow alongside wealth migration to the UAE, the evidence suggests that the residential property market is advancing into its next stage on solid ground, rather than showing signs of decline.

In conclusion, the outlook for the Dubai real estate market contradicts earlier pessimistic forecasts, demonstrating robust growth driven by significant transaction volumes and rising prices. With strong demand fundamentals in play, the market is well-positioned for continued success moving forward.