Emirates NBD, a leading financial institution in the region, has projected a positive outlook for Dubai’s economy leading into 2026. Factors such as robust growth, increasing tourism numbers, and a decrease in regional tensions, alongside strong performances from both private and public sectors, are expected to contribute significantly to economic resilience.

Daniel Richards, a Senior Economist at Emirates NBD, outlined in a recent report that Dubai’s economy might grow by 4.5 percent in 2026, exceeding the IMF’s global growth forecast of 3.1 percent for that year. Although comprehensive GDP data for 2025 is still pending, year-on-year growth shows a promising trend, with a 4.4 percent increase observed thus far. In comparison, growth was recorded at 3.3 percent in 2023 and 3.2 percent in 2024.

Richards noted the upcoming easing of monetary policy from the U.S., along with diminishing global trade uncertainties, as factors that could further enhance the UAE’s economic environment. This positive momentum is also reflected in a recent S&P Global PMI survey, which hit 54.5 in both October and November, indicating strong business activity.

The forecast is bolstered by an anticipated surge in tourism, particularly due to the stabilization of regional tensions. Projected growth for Dubai’s tourism sector is expected to be around 5 percent in 2025, with visitor numbers showing an upward trend. The decline in South Asian visitors observed in 2025 is expected to subside, providing additional room for growth as visitors from other regions continue to be drawn to Dubai’s evolving tourism offerings.

Moreover, the population of Dubai is on the rise, surpassing the 4 million mark for the first time, primarily driven by the city’s appealing hospitality and entertainment options, as well as favorable tax conditions. With government targets aiming for a population of 5.8 million by 2040, this growth is likely to spur demand for real estate and various services, positioning Dubai for continued expansion in the years ahead.